My outlook for gasoline prices

Going up.

The oil market is balanced. Production is meeting demand and the glut in storage is pretty much gone. As the economy recovers from the pandemic, demand for oil will rise also.

But I've got reason to think production is not going to rise. For several factors, I don't think domestic production will increase a great deal. So that leaves OPEC + Russia in control of the market and they will run the price of oil up, before they increase production.

Around 2010, when frac technology hit several oil fields in the USA, our domestic production began a steep rise. It was fueled by oil in the $90 to $100 bbl range. That attracted large amount of investment by private equity who wanted to get in on the large returns. These large profits defeated Obama's best efforts to stop our oil production from increasing.

I'm hearing that now, even if the price of oil rises above $60 a bbl, that the private equity investment will not be there in large sums. These investors are scared of investing in fossil fuels, whether they believe that climate change is a big problem , or not. In the political environment we're living in now. these investors could get punished for investing in fossil fuels. I don't think they will be back even if oil reaches the 90 to 100 bbl range.

The current president ( whoever that may be, I think Biden is just a puppet being told what to do ) is not in favor of increasing domestic oil production. Climate change is the reasoning. They won't object to the price of gasoline rising higher, much higher. Higher costs of energy from fossil fuels makes renewables and alternatives more feasible economically. It will speed up the adaption of things like EV's.

What we're seeing right now, is a merger of the Federal Govt, big corporations, the media, Hollywood, and academia at universities that have taken total control of the country. And they will push climate change measures like never before. I think they will turn us into a socialist state where the govt will have control over large aspects of our lives.

In the process, they will punish any State or company that does not go along. They're already punishing oil producing states that vote red.

We just saw the State of Georgia get punished by MLB and large corporations for enacting legislation that was supposedly racist, except I've yet to hear anyone state exactly , specifically , how it was racist. They just said it was, because, it just was.

Well, what they're gonna do to oil producing States and fossil fuel producing companies, will make that Georgia thing pale in comparison.

Bottom line, expect to pay more for gasoline, a lot more. OPEC + Russia is not gonna take mercy on you and OPEC is no longer scared of being undercut by US domestic production.

As to how that will impact bass fishing, I think recreational bass fishing will adapt, but the tournament game is gonna take some major changes that will reshape it to the point, interest will decline. Just my opinon.

 

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