South China Sea

Near the turn of the last century, China started planning for war with the United States. In a Quadrennial Defense Review(guidance for future military efforts), the Chinese stated that they wanted their military to be able to fight and win a war with the US by 2017. Many in the intelligence field feel the Chinese are trying to meet that goal.
The Chinese can't defeat the US in a global war but can possibly win a regional war for control of the South China Sea. If they control the regional sea lanes, they gain control over Japan, the Philippines and smaller countries bordering the sea. At that point, they will enforce their control over mineral rights and maritime shipping in the South China Sea.
Until recently, the Chinese were unable to accomplish their goal because the US could deny control of the sea. Two events have evened the balance of power in the area. The first is the buildup of reefs into islands large enough to have airstrips for military aircraft. The second is placement of advanced surface to air missiles on those islands. The islands and missiles give the Chinese the possibility of gaining control because of the longer US supply lines.
Main land China can no longer supply the needs of its massive population. It needs the South China Sea and it's resources for it's people. Quite possibly by the original 2017 date.

 

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